bricap's Journal

In the roto league, I finished second out of thirteen teams. I was happy with that, considering how horrible my start was in both leagues. In the head to head league, I could do no better than to finish sixth out of ten teams. The first month proved to be absolutely devastating. I have to say that FBB is incredibly addicting.

Baltimore as a great time this weekend. It marked the first time there was corporate sponsorhip of a tournament by a company besides Hasbro, so this was definitely a most historical event. I have no idea if this is a model that can be copied everywhere or not. I'd like to think it's possible. Let's hope for the best.

In the auction/head-to-head league, I'm in dead last place. In head-to-head, if you start off poorly, it is extremely difficult to recover. I had some disastrous draft picks. Carpenter was hurt, and it took awhile to play itself out. Barfield had a horrendous start. I ended up cutting him for Brandon Phillips, but the damage was already done. Glad he was still unclaimed. Young and Sheffield had horrendous starts. Ibanez had an injury and I never knew. Glaus got hurt immediately.

With no third basemen available, and a team that couldn't hit water if it fell out of a boat, I traded Verlander and Papelbon for David Wright and Dontrelle Willis. I knew I'd be cutting Willis soon, but I needed a third basemen badly. I figured I could still find guys on the waiver wire as the season wore on. Wright started slowly for me, but he's been pretty solid lately. I had plenty of other inquiries from people trying to buy my slumping stars at the low.

The auction team is:

C V-Mart
1B Carlos Pena
2B Brandon Phillips
3B David Wright
SS Michael Young
OF Gary Sheffield
OF Matt Holliday
OF Reggie Willits
Util Raul Ibanez
Bench Carlos Delgado

SP Roy Oswalt
SP John Maine
SP Justin Germano
SP Mark Buehrle
SP Jorge Sosa
SP Rodrigo Lopez
SP Jeff Francis
RP Billy Wagner
RP Matt Capps
RP Brad Hennessey

DL Jason Bergmann

So there have been a lot of changes to this team in only two months. I think the team is ready to start doing something soon. I am only 13 games out of the last playoff spot, with 10 more weeks left after this week until the playoffs, so there is certainly hope.

As for the Roto team, I had a lot of the same problems. As my starting pitching was abysmal, I loaded my team up with ace middle relievers so I could lower my WHIP and ERA. Before I did that, my team was dead last in both categories. Now my team is near the top in both categories. I lead the league in saves, despite not having drafted a single guy who was named closer as of draft day. I don't think this league has had a single trade yet. Not sure if people are trying or not, but that's how it's been. My auction league loves to make trades, though.

Anyway, here is what my roto team looks like now:

C Jorge Posada
1B David Ortiz
2B Dustin Pedroia
SS Michael Young
3B Garrett Atkins
OF Gary Sheffield
OF Adam Dunn
OF Raul Ibanez
Util Kevin Youkilis
Bench Josh Barfield
Bench Casey Kotchman
Bench Scott Podsednik

SP Chris Young
SP Justin Germano
SP John Maine
RP Al Reyes
RP Jonathan Papelbon
P Alan Embree
P Pat Neshek
P Scot Shields
P Rodrigo Lopez
Bench Derek Lowe
Bench Chad Billingsley
DL Jason Bergmann
DL Chris Carpenter

So this team has changed somewhat, also. Youkilis was a huge addition. He had great average and was scoring a lot of runs in that lineup in Boston. Sheff and Young caught on fire, and Posada is performing way above expectations. All this allowed me to sit Atkins while he was slumping. The bullpen, as I said before, has been instrumental in mounting this comeback. This team is in third. It's still a long way to catch the first place team, but I think this team has a good shot at competing for it. All that despite being in the cellar for much of April, and one of the most competitive waiver wires I've seen since playing FBB.

My Team from the Auction Draft
It was a crazy auction, with managers paying up big for marquee hitters. I didn't follow suit, for the most part, and chose to spend money on a couple of top pitchers while this was all going on. The league is a 6x7 head to head. In pitching, CGs were replaced with Quality Starts and Losses. Here is my team, with what I paid for each player:

C Victor Martinez $21
1B Giambi $11
2B Josh Barfield $7
3B Glaus $11
SS Michael Young $19
OF Matt Holliday $28
OF Sheffield $9
OF Ibanez $12
Util Corey Patterson $8

P Carpenter $37
P Oswalt $31
P Papelbon $14
P Wagner $11
P Verlander $13
P Jered Weaver $9
B Kelvim Escobar $5
B John Patterson $7
B Pat Burrell $1
B John Maine $3
B Sexson $3

Given the 6x7 format, I think pitchers should be worth a little more than before. I added Jason Jennings today, given that Weaver was on the DL. I was on vacation until last night, or I would have added someone sooner. The Carpenter pick could really haunt me this season if his elbow shelves him. J. Patterson and Escobar have real risks, but the price was right on those. I know V-Mart looks pricy there, but consider that McCann went for $29 and Mauer went for around $25. After those three catchers, the market falls off. Holliday at $28 was a real bargain in this draft, I kid you not. I'm not sure how this team is going to turn out. The new categories make this year especially interesting.

Another Season
Last season, I finished second in both leagues I played in. Hopefully I'll improve on that this year.

Anyway, we had a draft in one of my two leagues last night. The format is 5x5 roto, 13 teams drafting. I drafted 10th. Here is my lineup, in the order I drafted the players:

Greenie MonstersView All
Round Pick Player Position
1. (10) David Ortiz 1B
2. (17) Chris Carpenter SP
3. (36) Garrett Atkins 3B
4. (43) Michael Young SS
5. (62) Gary Sheffield 1B,OF
6. (69) Adam Dunn OF
7. (88) Josh Barfield 2B
8. (95) Chris Young SP
9. (114) Jonathan Papelbon RP
10. (121) Raúl Ibañez OF
11. (140) Scott Podsednik OF
12. (147) Jorge Posada C
13. (166) Anibal Sánchez SP
14. (173) Derek Lowe SP
15. (192) Freddy García SP
16. (199) Adam Wainwright RP
17. (218) Jeremy Sowers SP
18. (225) John Maine SP
19. (244) Dan Wheeler RP
20. (251) Bob Howry RP
21. (270) Clay Hensley SP,RP
22. (277) Pat Neshek RP
23. (296) José Guillén OF

Papelbon had not been selected as the closer when we did the draft. I caught a break on that one, as he was selected as the closer today. This way, he will instantly have value, whereas if he started, it might take some time to get used to doing that again. With 13 teams, it's not as easy to get what you want, also. I look back and think I could have done better with some of the picks. Drafting Podsednik was painful, but I really needed a speedster (I couldn't bring myself to punt the category completely), and he was the last one available. Garcia is a question mark as he left yesterday's game with pain in his biceps. I knew it when I drafted him, but I thought it wasn't going to be serious, that it was part of what March is all about. Another thing that was weird was that I lost my connection in the first round (the draft was online), and it automatically selected David Ortiz for me. Vlad was still available. Last year, I selected Vlad with the third pick in this same league. Things have changed somewhat since then, but I would have liked to think about it. But that's life, and I should not have tried to draft on my remote, which hiccups at the most inopportune times every so often. After that, I ran to the hardwired computer to draft Carpenter just in time.

Saturday is the auction draft. There is nothing quite like that in FBB. It's a much different game than the standard snake draft. I know that my team is going to be quite a bit different than the team I just drafted last night, for better or for worse. I'll try to post that roster this weekend before I go on vacation.

Copycat Songs
I've thought a lot about copycat songs lately. It seems every time I turn on the radio, I hear a song that sounds like one that's already been done before. Here are a few that I have figured out. Some are new, some are older. I provide some links so you can see for yourselves:

Cheap Trick - The Flame
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-LnenoWfD8

copied by: Maroon5 - She Will Be Loved
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqFeQBzN3fc

Dave Edmunds - I Hear You Knocking (this was yet another cover of an old song, though, but this version works for this exercise just fine)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kn_DPz3KDk8

Bob Seger - Old Time Rock and Roll
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6UJZtCz1-c

The Supremes - Keep Me Hanging On
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYrT4cxvlq4

U2 - Vertigo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLLQsSKTpRE

Pat Benatar - Invincible
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbomJNYQDJo

Garbage - Stupid Girl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1N29vkIT3eo&mode=related&search=

Elvis Presley - Burning Love
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MTSXTagFeE

The Cars - You Might Think
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NXmK1YISpk

The Beatles - Getting Better
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vD8nBraflw

The Clash - London Calling
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiVbkHhJUzw

The Beatles - Two of Us
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Ztr8j_-gD4

The Killes - All These Things That I've Done (ripoff starts about 1:30 into it)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6ERe23kSBM

The Beatles - Taxman
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQqtvl2Ibzo

Start! - The Jam
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDT3D3NFitI

I think that's enough for now. Any thoughts?

It's been awhile....

I salvaged a sixth place finish at this year's US Scrabble Open. Landsberg (Mr. 770) told me that he and I were the only two players among the top 28 finishers who failed to break 500 in any game for the tournament. I did get routed a few times, though. It was a strange event, to say the least. I had a negative point spread for most of the tournament. After round 15, I was 8-7, minus 578. I was able to finish in the plus, in double figures. It's hard to say what happened this event. I didn't record the racks, so I can't say whether or not I was playing well this event. I felt like I was, but that doesn't necessarily mean I was. It's easy to be fooled into thinking that. Staying in the right frame of mind and not losing sight of the objective can be hard when getting routed in the losses and falling further and further behind the leaders. It's easy to want to phone it in. I'm known for big second half rallies, but I attribute this in part to having had to make the money for the plane fare back home when I was a starving college student.

I haven't been doing much in the market. I felt a little snakebitten after May and June, and I did pay more attention to studying for the tournament through July. The market seems to be shaping up a bit better now. Recent buys are Motorola and Nokia.

It looks like I will be working again soon. I'll provide more details when it happens.

As for the fantasy baseball, I'm in second in both leagues. In the 6x6 head to head, there's no explanation. My team is very erratic, and it's getting a lot of breaks from the vagaries of the head to head format. There is no feeling of domination. If it was roto, I would have been done long ago. The loss of Sheffield has been hard to overcome. My team is:

V-Mart
Delgado
Roberts
Hanley Ramirez
Rolen
Carlos Lee
Ibanez
Little Sarge
Adrian Gonzalez

Peavy
Contreras
Sheets
Josh Johnson
Felix Hernandez
Jeff Francis
Mariano
BJ Ryan
Otsuka
Putz
Saito

The hitting needs some changes, I think. The bullpen has been more than solid, and the starting has been inconsistent. Trying to trade a front line closer for a front line starter is easier said than done. Last week the starters had a great week, but they sucked this week. My opponent sends five starters to the mound tomorrow. If they do well, and my offense collapses tomorrow, the rout is on.

As for the 5x5 roto weekly lineup league, I'm about 10-11 points out. My team has been dead last or near last in batting average. There are 11 teams. It is in 7th place in runs scored. So I needed runs and batting average. I made some big trades at the deadline. One thing right now is that there is no starting pitching to be found on the waiver wire. Because of that, I have been able to trade some of my second tier starters for great hitters. I got the ball rolling by trading Halladay (though he's first tier, obviously) for Jeter. I got a gift in Tejada for John Maine, also. Maine has been holding up his end of the bargain, though. I also unloaded Jeremy Sowers for Carl Crawford. Crawford was a great fit for my team. I've never been big on Crawford because he doesn't draw walks and he plays for a terrible team, but I needed average in a big way. Don't get me wrong, I know this was a good trade for me. The team I traded with didn't have room for Crawford. The trade happened right before the deadline.

This team is:

McCann
Giambi
Roberts
Jeter
Nomar
Vlad
Berkman
Crawford
Tejada

Carpenter
Peavy
Chris Young
Jerred Weaver
K-Rod
Francisco Cordero
Pat Neshek (a Twin setup guy with a ridiculous K ratio and other great numbers)
Liriano is on the DL. I hope he makes it back and pitches well.

I should be able to gain in runs and average down the home stretch. Whether I erase the 11 point deficit remains to be seen.

Half game out
The head to head squad had a decisive 7-2 victory this past week. Brian Roberts finally hit a homer. One more and the Duane Kuiper comparisons will cease. Delgado missed a few games, but I didn't have to make changes because the leads in the hitting categories were pretty solid. Otherwise, the lineup did well, winning 4 of the 6 hitting categories, while losing walks and tying in stolen bases. The only pitching category we lost was wins. No CGs for anybody, and a tie in WHIP. The Tiger additions have been good, but not great. Granderson had a mini-slump last week, but he generally doesn't have days where he puts zeros across the board. Thames has been a solid addition. I like the upside of these two additions, and though I downplay what they have done, they are a big improvement over Sexson/Hawpe.

The one thing this team needs is a lockdown starting pitcher. Peavy has been disappointing, but not enough for me to bite on any of the offers I have received for him. Same with D-Train. Sheets, I wonder if he'll come back healthy this year. Fortunately the starting rotation has been decent, though they can't get wins and they don't always strike out a lot of batters. I have a solid bullpen, and I am willing to trade one of my best two for a top tier starter, but nobody wants to give up their best starters for a closer, it seems.

I've generally made some decent picks the past two weeks. I seem to be quietly regaining lost ground. ESV was a good flip this past week. I paid 40.50 1-2 weeks ago, and dumped it today for about 46.75 today. I've tried a few shorts. FITB has been a nothing after I factor in the dividend I had to pay out. EOG has been a loser, and MTRX has been pretty flat. Shorting is not easy, that's for sure.

I'm back to studying for the big event in August. I have my updated study program, so I should be set, so long as I spend the requisite time. The new words will not sink in easily, as I've said before.

Bob Denn 1927-2006
Damn, even though I knew this was going to happen, it still hits me
pretty hard. I'm thinking of all the time that our paths in this
game crossed. Those of us who had the honor of playing at his clubs
and playing at his annual Arden Cup event all got to see what kind
of a man Bob Denn was. It is not often you see someone with a grace
like his. He wasn't somebody one got to know very well, but his
presence was felt by many in this game. I think back to how he ran
his club. He supplied all the boards, tiles and Sam Timers. For
real. He found many great venues for us. Barnes and Noble,
Borders, and the gourmet food section of Marshall Field's (we're
next to the gourmet chocolate section), where the club is currently
situated. Thinking back, I wish I showed up more often. His
presence was always felt there, by everyone. Before I played there
regularly, the members had gotten him a personalized board in
appreciation of his outstanding stewardship.

The Arden Cup was a testament to who Bob was. It was a chance for
those who didn't get to play in his clubs to find out what Bob was
all about. I'll never forget the extravagant reception he put on at
Maggiano's one year on the Friday before the event began. That was
definitely unprecedented (though he would certainly pull out all the
stops again when he ran the Can-Am last year). The venue is an
excellent one. And there are the trademark bowls of gumdrops at
each board, that are always replenished at various intervals. The
trophies (the eponymous Arden Cup) are something else, too. They're
so heavy that they have to be mailed home to out of town winners. I
wish everyone could have seen when Bob was presented with the
People's Choice for Director of the Year Award at this past
tournament. Those that saw it will never forget. People either
cried or really wanted to.

Over the past few months, I had been going to club, each time
wondering if it would be the last time I would see him again. I
always looked forward to showing up and chatting with him about
whatever was going on in the game at the time. I was able to go to
his place to visit him a couple more times before he finally passed
on. I'm glad I did. It seems like we all know someone who passed
away who we didn't get to spend a few more quality moments with. It
goes without saying that Wendy and I will really miss Bob. It's not
often in one's life that one meets someone like Bob, and sees how he
touches the lives of all around him. I hope that many of you in
this group get the opportunity to come to the Arden Cup next year
and witness his spirit that will imbue this event for many years to
come.

The luck catches up
Last wee, I had what would be, by most accounts, a very solid week in the head to head league. I had 33 runs, hit 10 homers, drove in 40 runs, stole 8 bases, drew 25 walks, had a complete game, had 6 saves, and struck out 71 hitters. I did hit .263, won 4 games, had a 4.99 ERA, and had a 1.29 WHIP, however. I ended up losing the week 7-3. My opponent had 38 runs, 11 homers, 9 stolen bases, and 28 walks. He also had 4 wins and a CG, along with a much better AVG, ERA, and WHIP. But as I said before, when my team was suffering through one injury after another, it hung in there and got a lot of breaks in the head to head. It's funny how head to head works sometimes.

The Jonny Gomes gravy train has stopped running long ago. He has shoulder problems, and won't be starting in any non-DH interleague games because he can't throw the ball. None of this can be good. I think it only gets worse from here. I replaced him with Raul Ibanez. I'm not too excited about the Mariners' anemic 1-2 punch of Ibanez and Sexson in my lineup, but it is what it is right now. I also cut Tony Armas, Jr., as he had only had one quality start in his last six starts. I added Enrique Gonzalez from the D-Backs, whose first four starts have been impressive. He will likely pitch on Sunday afternoon in Texas. Doesn't matter too much because my pitching stats appear to be shot for the week, thanks to Armas and D-Train yesterday.

I'm still liquidating longs right now. I got a good bounce in one today. That saved me a little money, anyway. And I just got short in FITB. It broke down yesterday out of a symmetrical triangle that formed over a 9 month period. I need to pay attention to this side of the market. I think there are some opportunities to be had shorting right now. I've certainly missed enough of them lately, anyway.

I played my final event before Phoenix this past weekend. It's an invitational event run by Mike and Pamina in even numbered years. I took second this time around. Wiegand ran away with it this time, and won for the second time in a row. The event was started in 1984, and the only time it was not run was in 1994. I had an incredible run in this event, winning it 7 times in a row, spanning from 1988 to 2002. I don't know what it is about this event, but for some reason I've had incredible success at it. It's kind of like Sam Snead at Greensboro. (He won that event 13 times.) One of the things about Albuquerque is that it's about a mile above sea level. One does have to adjust to that. Saturday featured 11 rounds, and I was exhausted by the time round 10 hit. I guess I need to get off my ass and go to the gym more often. At times I was happy at how I was playing, and at other times I wasn't. The new words continue to be a nuisance. I chickened out on a few of them, and flat out missed one or two of them. That needs to be figured out before Phoenix. I know a lot of other people are struggling with them, also, but having an edge here is important.

The market has been brutal lately. Today was bad, and the past few have been small losers. Times like this make me wonder what I'm even doing with long positions. If anything, it's been a great learning experience, though it has been expensive sometimes. Every time I think I have it figured out, I realize soon enough that I really don't. I could be liquidating some more positions tomorrow and Wednesday if this keeps up. I haven't been at this very long, so I don't have a wealth of experience, save for my market making career, and that wasn't nearly the same thing as this. I'm not playing with big stakes here, so I can't get hurt too badly.

This past week in FBB featured a classic matchup with the defending champ of the league. I lost Runs 35-36, HRs 14-17, BBs 23-25, Saves 9-12, and Ks 53-54. I won RBIs 48-40, AVG .298-.294, Ws 4-2, CGs 1-0, ERA 3.20-5.43, and WHIP 1.25-1.42. SBs were tied at 5 apiece. So I ended up winning the match 6-5. It was nice to see my team finally come together for a change. There were a lot of trying times in the past few weeks, though I was generally very lucky to have not sustained too many losses in that period. Sheffield is done, most likely for the season. The outfield is now C. Lee, Jonny Gomes, and Brad Hawpe. Sexson still mans the utility spot, putting up Dave Kingman type stats. Delgado and V-Mart came back to life in a big way last week. Peavy is kind of scary right now, though. He's striking out hitters, but he's also getting tagged. He seems to be hurt right now. I think he'll recover, but I had very high hopes for him this season. I thought he was going to tear up the NL this year. In the weekly roto league, I'm firmly planted in third place. It's hard to get the team just right for one whole week. It's something I'm definitely not used to, that's for sure.

Another squeaker
It was a close week in the head to head league. I eked out a 6-5 win, and I can't say I lit it up this week. Funny thing was that I would have been routed by two other teams, but squeaked out wins against 7 teams, while drawing against one other.

This upcoming week is going to be interesting. My pitchers in the head to head league have a brutal schedule. I have Armas pitching at Philly. I have Washburn pitching at Texas. I have D-Train at Coors Field. I have Contreras at Cleveland. Expect sky high ratios this week from the pitching staff. I'll send them out there and hope for the best. If it was rotisserie, I would sit most of them. If I only had one problem start, I could skip that one start. But with so many, I have to march them all out to face the music.

In the roto league, I added Gagne off the waiver wire. Can't believe he was there. I needed another closer. I only have K-Rod in that league. If Gagne stays healthy, this could be big.

Oh, and I finally had a few up days in the market this week. I was wondering when that was going to happen. I have to be aware that some of these are mere retracements and need to be watched closely. I escaped a disaster in CROX. Support failed, and I made sure I got out before it got out of hand. When it failed to rally to close above support, I bailed. Nothing worse than seeing something fail and then watching it collapse afterwards without having sold out at the first sign.

Casualty report
Brian Roberts is supposed to be back in the lineup tonight. Has it been that long alredy? Brandon Phillips seems to have petered out this week. Roberts' return couldn't have come at a better time. Contreras will return on Sunday to pitch against the Cubs. He's been the surprise ace on the staff when healthy. After that, Shef comes back next week. Sheets is going to live on the DL this season, it looks like. I cut Phillips loose today and picked up Tony Armas, Jr, who starts against the O's tomorrow at home. Sexson is finally starting to hit, but there's no accompanying production with it. And I can't forget Hanley Ramirez. He popped out his shoulder a few days ago, and is day to day. He's too good to just cut, and since I have no chance at runs or SBs, it's not much use to disrupt my roster this week.

In the 5x5 league, Berkman and Giambi have nagging injuries. Liriano makes his first start tonight. One funny thing last night, though. I had Hallady starting against the Angels. He pitches 7 innings, giving up 4 runs. He leaves with the game tied, and doesn't figure into the decision, because the Jays failed to score the next inning, which was pitched by Shields, who is also on my team. K-Rod comes in to pitch the ninth with the score still tied. He gets out of that just fine, the Angels fail to score, and he comes in for the 10th inning. Of course, he gives up 4 runs in the top of the 10th, and the Jays win it. How can one have three pitchers appear in a game and get nothing useful out of any of them? It was pretty funny, anyway. Oh, and since the Jays scored four runs, BJ Ryan didn't get a save opportunity for me in the 6x6 league.

SELLOFF
It had to happen. The Dow ran up on low volume on Friday. I was not impressed by the rally. I had had a great day on Thursday, but my portfolio was up pretty small on that big market rally. As I said before, I closed out a lot of positions on Thursday and Friday. I could see weakness developing. ALTI tanked huge after I sold it. It traded down to about 3 even today. I sold in the 3.80s. (I paid 3.40 for it, but it traded as high as 4.50 intraday earlier in the week. Pretty squirrelly stock.) Had I not liquidated some of those stocks, I would have been tagged a lot harder than I was today.

I ended up buying five stocks today, and one yesterday. One of them, Tweeter Audio (TWTR), decided to go even lower than my bid. The nerve! I got an odd lot partial on one of my bids, 10 shares of LINC at 16.25 out of 200. It ran up after that. What does one do with 10 shares? I'll have to see if I can get an adjustment on the commission.

Needless to say, today's selloff was on weak volume, though volume is more important on rallies. I liked most of my buys today, though. A drop like today's is always cause for concern of course, but usually that's the time to buy. Stocks find their old supports. Some of those supports will fail, and the trick is to get out of those commitments before they get away from you.

Casualties
The squad in my head to head league is getting decimated by injuries. I have Brian Roberts, Jose Contreras, and Gary Sheffield all on the DL. Ben Sheets should be joining them any minute. It makes for difficult maneuvering. These are guys I hate to drop. Roberts was huge before getting hurt. Sheffield is virtually guaranteed to produce in that lineup when he's not hurt. It's hard to go wrong with Yankees. Losing Contreras is tough. He's been the only solid pitcher on my staff so far. And Sheets, man I should have shopped him after he had that one good start where he struck out 10 batters. At least they say the shoulder injury isn't related to the surgery he had before. So my relievers will have to carry the load. I won't be competing in wins, CG's, or K's, but I will compete in the other pitching categories. I had to drop some of my more marginal starters to address these issues. I dropped Marquis just in time, so I didn't have to deal with his bad outing against Colorado on Monday. Why I added him and held onto him I don't know. I had one great outing from him, then he sucked thereafter. Also gone is Ervin Santana. You have to take the bad with the good with him. He will be solid someday. Just not yet. Wash(and)burn survived the cut. He's been solid for Seattle this year. I added Putz and Hawpe in place of those two, as I mentioned before. This is going to be a tough 2-3 weeks for this team. So far I'm winning big this week, but the categories are very close, with 5 days to go.

The past week was good for me in the stock market. I wish it was always like that. I'm out searching for new stocks now, since I liquidated so much of the portfolio last week. So far I've looked at a few hundred charts, and bought one stock, while putting bids in for about 3 others. GM has finally turned the corner, it looks like. It had a nice breakout yesterday.

Last Thursday and Friday I found myself liquidating a lot of my positions, despite the rally happening on Friday. I had a nice run on LTBG. I bought at 10 on the throwback to support, and sold it at 13.13. On Friday, it gapped up from 13 to 13.50 or so, and sold off from there intraday. Selling off from a gapped up opening is not a good sign, usually. I decided that was the time to take the money off the table. If I had thought this through, I would have put in a bid at the previous minor support, which was around 11.25. Yesterday, the stock dropped pretty far intraday, and actually traded a little lower than 11.25. It then ran back up to 12.75. Next time, I'll need to keep such possibilities in mind. That could have been some found money there. I also bailed out of ALTI, CDE, and MCDT. Those were winners, but they were starting to show weakness, so I had to take what I could get. I finally dumped CMT. I had misread this one badly, paying around 8.10 and watching it drop all the way to 5 in a very short time. It finally rallied into the 7's. I had had an offer in at 8, but it only got to 7.90 before selling off. On Friday, CMT did a doji, so I just got out around 7.30. Not as bad a loser as before, anyway. I also bailed on AGIL for a small loser. I thought I saw a double bottom form in it, but the support failed. I got out when it retraced. I sold QCCO on Thursday at 15. The minor trend had run its course. I paid 12.50 to get in. I'll take that any day.

I was back on the circuit for the second of back to back weekends, this time out in Portland. It definitely went better than Boston did the weekend before. The games were decidedly different. There were very few of the 470-420 kind of shootouts like in Boston. I won one game with a 351 score. I would have scored a lot more that game had I seen GIFTWR(A)P early on for huge points. That's a new one. These new words are proving more difficult to retain for some reason. Ascertaining the value of the Q is tricky now. I think it's okay to hold onto it more often than it was before, but how much more is the real question. The format of the event in Portland was interesting. It was an open field, meaning there was no rating restriction. After 12 games, the players with the two best records played a four game final. A 2-2 result would be decided on spread. I had a great start to the event, and managed to get the top spot, and walterzuey fought his way into the second spot. I won the first game by a close score. I led the whole time, but the game was always in limbo, it seemed. I hit three in a row early on, but he kept scoring through that. I made sure there were less than 7 in the bag for his impending late bingo, and managed to hold on in the endgame. Game 2 was a blowout for him. It's possible I could have tried to preserve the spread instead of trying for an unlikely win. That was the interesting nuance of a 4 game final. Spread mattered for the 2-2 results. A blowout would put me in a major bind. I'd have to win the last two games, or at least get a good blowout of my own. I lost a relatively close Game 3 (compared to game 2, anyway), and the stage was set for Game 4. I would need to win that one by 187 points. Playing too agressively for a blowout was likely to backfire. I knew I would hav to pick my spots. I started to pull away a little bit in the second half of the game. He then gave me an opening, and I played (M)ORTU(A)RY for 68 to get a solid lead. The M was placed in position 5 of a triple-triple line. He was forced to block the spot for 15 points. Through another M nearby, I played EARMARKS the next turn for 88 points. It was too little, too late, though. I picked the remaining few tiles out of the bag, and after we played out the ending, I had won that game by 141. So walterzuey ended up winning the tournament. It would be cool if we can repeat this in August and have an all Phoenix final, but guessing an exacta for that event is a crapshoot.

One Down, Two to Go
Today I took Exam One (of three) for the Chartered Market Technician designation. It was a 2 1/2 hour test consisting of 115 multiple choice (A-D) questions. I was kind of worried going in, as my knowledge of the oscillators was not so good, I thought. Thankfully they didn't ask questions about them that were TOO specific. Oscillators are not my cup of tea, really. They can't work by themselves very well. They are secondary indicators, and one must remember that. So I never got into them very much. Pring's book talked about them a lot, and I was scared that they were going to ask tons of questions about them from that book. His book was not nearly as easy to follow as Murphy's book. I knew that my knowledge of trends, Dow Theory, chart formations and candlesticks was pretty solid, though. There certainly were a number of questions that I made educated guesses on. I don't know what my score was. The computer just tells whether one passes or fails. I passed, and I'll never get to know by how much. But most importantly, I passed, so it's on to part two. There will be a lot more about candlestick formations on that test, from what I read. I have to buy Steve Nison's big book on the subject. I used to look at that stuff when I traded options at the CBOE, and my many visits to litwick.com gave me a pretty good education on the subject. I also have to reread the book Irrational Exuberance. It's a fascinating book about crowd behavior. Part Two isn't until this fall, though.

I have no idea what the value of a CMT will be, though. My impression is that the financial industry frowns on technical analysis. Value investing (i.e. "fundamentals") is by far the preferred method on the Street. I guess that school of thought never sat well with me. I think the technical side is really where it's at. Even if you find a stock with good fundamentals, you have to find a good entry point to maximize value. After my eight years of trading, I came away not believing in the random walk theory whatsoever. Good technical analysis does increase one's chances of making money. I can't knock good fundamental analysis, though. Warren Buffett made his money on it, and nobody who trades on technicals has ever had a success record like his. I just think technical analysis fits my mindset better. It's about seeing shapes and patterns and such. It's how my mind works. I think it's good that it's not as in vogue as value investing, but at the same time, it would be nice if that school of thought received a little more recognition (so somebody could hire me, dammit).

Please Come to Boston in the Springtime
This weekend I made my annual trip out to Boston for the Boston Area Tournament (BAT). I've gone to this event consistently since 1989, missing the trip only four times. What makes this event special is the Premier Division. The Premier division is limited to the top x number of players. When I started, it was the top 12 players that showed up. This year, it was 20. Sometimes they expand it for anniversaries that are multiples of five. This year was the 25th annual event, so this was one particular case of that. I disappointed a lot of people who took part in hector31's roto draft for the event, finishing with a decidedly mediocre 9-11 record. Seems like every single game in the event was a shootout. Lots of scoring, and someone won when all the dust settled. In 7 of my 11 losses, I scored over 400. It dawned on me that the new words were possibly a significant reason for the higher scoring. QI and ZA do make a big difference in the new game. QI means the Q is much less a liability than ever before. The nightmares of throwing a Q back 4 times in one game are forever a thing of the past. ZA means that a Z very likely produces a 40 point play, minimum, in most games. I think there were only two games in this event where there was no flow for me. When you play the Boston Premier, all the games are played against players who can make the plays. There are no easy games in this event. This event is one of the great traditions of this game. I always look forward to it every April. And anybody who has played it enough times has had a year or two with a losing record at the event. It's not that big a deal in this event, though. This marked my second time with a losing record at the event. (I went 5-8 in 1995.) I've won it twice, finished second 3 times, and third twice. (I looked it all up on cross-tables.com.) And I've had a few other pretty mediocre records at this event. It's a good event to take inventory on what needs to be done heading into the summer, when we play the for the national championship. And I know that I need to get more used to playing with these new words. It's not just about knowing them, it's about integrating them into the game, and seeing those new hooks. The game has changed, and it's going to take some time to figure out how much it really has changed.

FBB was kind to me this past week. I shut out my opponent in head to head, 10-0. I didn't put up numbers like I had in prior weeks, but my opponent had an uncharacteristically rough week. Brian Roberts went on the DL on Sunday. I had to add Brandon Phillips in both leagues to fill in. Phillips has been on fire the past couple of weeks. Vidro was the other option, but I know what he brings, and that's the unparalleled ability to lead the league every year in being left on second base, when he's healthy.

It's When You Sell That Counts
Sometimes, there are going to be days when the portfolio takes a hit. Today is such a day, down about 1% intraday or so at the moment I'm writing this. And on such a day, one has to try to assess what stocks might need to be cut loose. There's always a few stocks in the portfolio that I'm in some denial about. I shouldn't have such stocks, I know. And this kind of thinking is the downfall of market players.

Lions Gate (LGF) has come back all the way to where I bought it, around 9.30 or so. It had gotten to just over 10 a week or two ago, and I watched the uptrend fail after that. I don't regret the buying decision, but it's kind of annoying when you see a rally fizzle out so quickly like that. It had broken out of a downtrend that started around 11.50 at the beginning of 2005, and there was another minor support/resistance at 9.30, where I bought after it had been broken topside. (The breakout happened the day after Crash won the Oscar.) That support might be a bit lower at this spot on the chart, but not by much. Does it rally back, or will it pierce that line and head for the upper bound of the downtrend channel that was also broken. Sometimes, parallel downtrend channels get created. Always something to watch out for. I'm not going to take the scratch here. I'll see how this shakes out. This little downtrend has been accompanied by very little volume, which is encouraging.

AGIL is another small rally that fizzled. It's also back to where I bought it. 7.25 is an important level for this stock. It's just below it right now. This stock formed a double bottom through 2005, and peaked at 7.25 during that time. I did believe in this one very strongly. Double bottoms are among the most reliable buy signals in technical analysis. Hopefully I didn't misread this chart. That happens from time to time.

Back in the baseball realm, dropping Brad Wilkerson and adding Jonny Gomes was huge. I forgot to talk about that change before. Wilkerson has a bum shoulder, and I think it's showing this season. He was striking out way too often, even by his standards. Gomes has done nothing but kill the ball since I added him. Last week's matchup was very close. My squad had 16 jacks, which is a lot for a 9 player lineup in one week. My opponent had 15, and had Nick Johnson gotten one in his last at bat last night, the category would have been tied up at 16. So I won it 16-15. Going into yesterday's games, we were close in homers, RBI's, batting average, wins, Ks, and ERA. My pitching let me down. Contreras had a stellar outing, but only 2 Ks. Marquis got lit up, and had only 2 Ks. The Cardinal offense and defense both let him down. It came down to John Thomson starting for my opponent last night, at RFK, needing 4 Ks to win that category, and ERA being a tossup. I didn't expect to win either category at that point, and of course I didn't. I won the match 6-5 overall. I won runs 43-40, HRs 16-15, SBs 7-0, BBs 31-21, AVG .353 to .332, and WHIP 1.00 to 1.23. He won RBIs 44-38, Ws 4-3, saves 6-2, Ks 52-50, and ERA 3.27 to 3.36. No CGs for either side.

I know I definitely overpaid for Rivera. Is he ever going to get a chance to save a game this year? That team scores at least 6 runs nearly every single game. Most of the games are lopsided. The only time he seems to come in is to throw an inning in an already decided game to keep his arm fresh. Sure wish I was paying attention when they gave the closer job to Papelbon. Seo appears to be a cut, but I'm going to give him one more shot in this league, as he's pitching against the Padres in his next start, unless I can pick up Liriano after he clears waivers. I can't justify giving up waiver priority for him. Can't believe the D-Backs lit him up at Dodger Stadium. I did drop Seo in the other league, along with Cain and Taveras. I picked up Thomson, Liriano, and Wigginton. I'm starting Wigginton ahead of Mora this week. Mora is in a slump, and he never has done well at Toronto. Wigginton will get to feast on Yankee pitching during that time.

FBB and Stocks (of course!)
So now I make a few more switches. I go against all conventional wisdom and pick up Ervin Santana (and ending the short lived Ty Wigginton experiment), who is pitching against two teams next week that he had great success against last year. I also cut Joe Blanton. He had two horrendous starts recently, and his upside isn't good enough to offset the pain he brought in those last two starts. I replaced him with Jarrod Washburn. I looked at some of his stats. Interestingly, he had solid stats on the road, and he was very mediocre when pitching at Anaheim. Now, he's pitching at Safeco, which is the best pitcher's park in the AL. I concluded that he hated pitching in Anaheim. I hope I know what I'm doing with this one.

Couple of good stock plays recently. One was in DTLK. I saw a reverse head and shoulders form, with a resistance at 4. It broke, and I put my bid in around 4.20 or so (I forget the exact price), waiting for the throwback. I got filled, and the stock was listless around the support for another month. Finally, it gapped up near 6, and the next day
I offered at 6.25 and got filled. I got away with not having a crazy standing offer. Sometimes, on these gap moves or spikes, you can miss out on the action, as the prices might not return to those levels anytime soon.

The other was MROI. This was pure trendline action. I paid 14.25 last month, which was right where a couple of different trendlines met. There was an uptrend that had lasted for about a year and a half, and a minor downtrend channel that walked itself back to this support. The stock broke out of the minor channel in short order, running up to 16. It traded in the 15-16 range for a month, and then gapped up to 21. I had had a standing offer in at 19, and was filled at 20.89 on the opening. I wish all my stock plays were like this one. I wouldn't have to worry about working ever again.